The Retail Rundown: Holiday Features in Full Display

In the final stretch to Thanksgiving, turkey ads dominate protein advertisements this week with 29 percent, up from 11.8 percent the week prior and surpassing pork's 26.4 percent. Seafood ads come in at 20.2 percent, followed by beef at 16.4 percent. Chicken takes 6 percent, while eggs still have less than one percent of retail buying opportunities.

Fresh whole turkeys account for half of all turkey promotions, with frozen turkeys making up 40.5 percent. While turkeys take center stage, the holiday season also lifts demand for cold-weather comfort foods and convenient...

ANALYSIS: Shifting Retail Turkey Trends, Disease-Related Adjustments

So far this year we’re seeing a major decline in the number of fresh whole turkeys bought from retailers in Q4. Interestingly, this decreased call doesn’t look like it has much to do with the current price of turkey at retail. Additionally, price and distribution changes vary between the different size categories of turkeys, proving that not all turkey is created equal.

The changes to retail price and distribution of the larger turkeys (16-24 lbs. and >24 lbs.) are fairly straightforward. From the start of Q4...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Imported Beef Least Cost Formulation Effects on Mixed Trimmings 85% in Fall 2024

Throughout the course of October, Aus/NZ MXT 85 on the spot market dropped in value by $18/cwt after trading at $289/cwt levels at the end of September. Entering November, the number was at $271/cwt and has remained generally steady at that mark.

End users of boneless beef trim typically use different lean percentage items to formulate their finished products. Given this flexibility, buyers can select from different trim options based on price and specific...

ANALYSIS: Thanksgiving Bird Choices - Trends, Prices, and Consumer Preferences for Whole Chicken

Chicken isn’t what most people think of when they consider a Thanksgiving dinner. Nevertheless, there are consumers who will swap out a whole chicken for a whole turkey. A bird is a bird, after all. Some potential reasons include taste (some people prefer chicken), ease of handling, and serving size. Since chickens are smaller birds, they take less time to cook. It’s also much easier to find a pre-cooked rotisserie chicken than it is to find a pre-cooked whole turkey...  

ANALYSIS: Demand Outpaces Supply for Brazilian Beef

The Brazilian ”Boi Gordo” cattle price index reached BRL 344.20/15 Kg as of November 18 close, marking a year on year increase of 46%. According to Expanas Brazilian Beef Analyst, Augusto Eto, the increase is due to high demand from both domestic and export markets, a reduction in the supply of animals ready for slaughter and a favorable exchange rate with the Brazilian Real weakening approximately 18% against the U.S. Dollar since the beginning of the year.

Data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)...

ANALYSIS: Mexican Beef Cutout Dynamics

In 2024, the Mexican beef market experienced significant shifts, driven by fluctuating domestic and export opportunities. By mid-November, the total carcass value reached MXN 107.91/kg, marking steady price increases across most primal categories. These increases have been the result of consistent interest across all segments of the market, fueled by higher domestic consumption and increased exports. This dynamic has led to a generalized rise in primal values, ultimately pushing the overall cutout to... 

Ribs have emerged as the top-performing category, closing at MXN 134.49/kg, driven by... 

ANALYSIS: China’s Oct 2024 Beef Imports Rebound to 7-Month High at 237,264 mt

China's October 2024 beef imports rose to a 7-month high to 237,264 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China.

Increasing by 8.7% month-on-month (m-o-m), October 2024’s imports rose by 19,066 mt from September 2024’s 5-month low. This rebound was primarily fuelled by stronger shipments from Brazil, its largest supplier, along with notable contributions from Uruguay and New Zealand.

Year-on-year (y-o-y), imports...

ANALYSIS: U.S Beef Tenderloin Holiday Trends

With Thanksgiving in view, it seemed to be a good time to give an update on beef tenderloins as the next slated holiday will be Christmas and New Years. Tenderloins have had a rough year when comparing prices year-over-year. On average, prices have tracked about 10% below year-ago levels for choice tenderloins. Speaking to the cost-conscious environment, the beef industry has found itself in this year. Fast-forward to today’s price, choice tenderloins currently sit at $15.75/lb. which is about 6% below year-ago levels for the same...

The Retail Rundown: Turkey Takes the Spotlight

According to Circana data, fresh whole turkeys were featured at an average discounted price of $1.48 per pound last week, up from $1.27 per pound during the same period last year.

The most popular turkey sizes, 10–15 and 16–24 pounds, averaged $1.34 per pound, compared to $1.00–$1.10 per pound last year. These prices reflect pre-promotion rates and do not account for additional discounts or free turkey offers.

Whole turkeys are often used as loss leaders to increase holiday store...

ANALYSIS: Record September for U.S. Pork Exports as Markets Shift

The U.S. pork export market has taken center stage recently, with USDA data for September revealing a record-high export volume of 549 million pounds—the highest for this month in 54 years. This milestone reflects the U.S.'s growing strength in global markets, bolstered in part by declining European pork production, which has diminished their export presence.

Year-to-date, U.S. pork exports are up approximately 5% compared to this same period last year, though they remain slightly below 2021 levels...

ANALYSIS: Korea's Oct 2024 Beef Imports Climb to 9-Month High, In-Month Volumes Highest Since 1994

Korea’s October 2024 beef imports rose to the highest levels since January 2024, reaching 46,697 mt, according to the latest Korea Customs Service data.

Volumes surged by 21.0% (8,117 mt) month-on-month (m-o-m), fuelled by higher imports from its key suppliers, Australia and the United States (US).

In-month October 2024's figures were the highest on record since 1994, driven by subdued imports earlier in the year and a rush...

ANALYSIS: September Chicken Exports Defy Trend with 1.8% MoM Growth

In the month of September, total chicken exports were up 1.8% month-over-month (MoM). This is interesting as the 5-year average MoM change is a decline of -4.2% from August to September.  The increased volumes resulted in September being the first month since February, when export levels were not at the lowest point since 2019. Part of the relatively large volumes of chicken exported were likely due to the value of chicken compared to other proteins in September...

ANALYSIS: Monthly Seasonal Turkey Export Volume Sets Stage for Holidays

From August to September, the total volume of turkey exported decreased month-over-month (MoM) by -6.4%, a slightly more prominent decrease than the 5-year average change of -2.9%. While there were some large MoM increases in export volumes to countries such as Panama, Guatemala, and Jamaica, they did little to sway the overall trend. The volume of U.S. turkey exported to Mexico was responsible for approximately 72.4% of the total export volume. With Mexico importing -8.9% less turkey than the month before, it's no surprise...

The Retail Rundown: This Year's Thanksgiving Dinner May Cost Less 

This week’s protein promotions spotlight seafood, which makes up 33.1 percent of all ads, with pork following at 25.6 percent and beef at 24.3 percent. Chicken features come in at 13 percent, while turkey ads saw a small increase to 3.8 percent, up from 3.3 percent last week but below the 5 percent seen two weeks prior.

Frozen turkeys make up 27 percent of all turkey ads, up 25.7 percent last week, with prices ranging between $2.79 and $5.00 discounted last week.

According to the Expana Thanksgiving Dinner Index 2024...

ANALYSIS: Soaring EU Egg Imports 

When looking at the first eight months of the year, import volume of shell eggs in the EU more than tripled in the last two years. Extra-EU imports increased by 234% from 12,826 MT in 2022 (Jan-Aug) to 42,889 MT this year (Jan-Aug). This represents 62.2 million euros so far for 2024, down 7% year over year, but up 170% since 2022. 

The main supplier of the EU for eggs is Ukraine, which has a free-trade agreement with the EU. Despite some quotas in place, Ukraine...  

ANALYSIS: September USDA Data Shows Strong Growth in U.S. Pork Exports

The latest USDA export data for September paints a positive picture for the U.S. pork industry, with total pork exports reaching their highest levels in a decade. This impressive growth, a 7.2% surge compared to September of last year, is a continuation of a positive trend that began in mid-June.

Emerging markets in Latin America continue to be a significant driver of growth in U.S. pork exports.  Central and South America experienced impressive year-over-year increases of 30.1% and 43.2%, respectively.  Caribbean destinations such as the...

ANALYSIS: China’s Oct 2024 Meat Imports Extend 15-Month YoY Decline Streak, Reaching 534,675 mt

China’s total meat imports, including variety meats in October 2024 were recorded at 534,675 metric tonnes (m)t, based on the latest preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.

Imports dipped by just 1.1% m-o-m (-5,868 mt), falling for the second month, as firmer winter demand offset any significant declines.  

Volumes were also supported by its major supplier Brazil’s beef exports hitting record highs, but its poultry exports to China have...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Industry in Unseasonable Standoff Between Demand Patterns and Supplies

The chicken industry is engaged in a standoff between demand patterns and supplies. So far, the call for chicken this year has barely given up any ground, in a rather unseasonable manner.

The chicken index is a weighted average value composed of some of the lines in the chicken market including items like boneless breast meat and leg quarters. Since it is a formulation of several of the main components, it can be used as a rough indicator of market strength or weakness and seasonal trends...

ANALYSIS: Uruguay’s Beef Exports See 11.3% Monthly Rise in October, Yet Decline 11.9% Y-o-Y

In October 2024, Uruguay’s fresh beef exports reached 28,512 MT, based on the latest data from the Uruguayan National Customs Directorate. This is 11.3% higher than the previous month and marks a 11.9% drop Y-o-Y. On a YTD basis, cumulative exports now stand at 292,422 MT, up by 2.2% compared to the same period last year. Uruguay’s annual performance indicates resilience in export volumes, with exporters adjusting destination strategies in response to fluctuating demand and price conditions...

ANALYSIS: EU Liquid Yolk Prices Hit Record Highs Amid Supply Crunch

The European Union's egg market continues to experience a significant imbalance between supply and demand. Retail demand has been relentless throughout much of this year, leaving few eggs available for breaking, while feedback indicates that egg production across the EU has struggled to meet the heightened demand.

The industry's output is being constrained by a combination of factors. Primarily, producers are grappling with the complexities and increased costs associated with the transition towards cage-free egg production systems, in line with evolving animal welfare standards. Additionally...

ANALYSIS: Imported Boneless Beef Trimmings from Argentina to the U.S. Hit All-Time High

According to the latest Meat Passed for Entry Report issued by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) released on November 1st, Argentina passed 2,019 MT of boneless trimmings into the United States on the week of October 21st. This marks a record high for Argentine imports to the United States. The last record high spike occurred in September of 2020 when 1,535 MT of boneless trimmings were imported from Argentina. Still, that is a 31.53% increase from the last spike to the most recent one... 

ANALYSIS: U.S. Egg Market Faces Pressure as Price Hikes Cool Consumer Demand

Retail demand across the U.S. has grown increasingly varied this week, influenced by rising shelf prices and differing Thanksgiving preparation timelines among retailers. Over the past week, nearly all retail outlets have raised their shelf prices, reflecting last month’s more than 100% increase in wholesale values. However, these adjustments have been far from uniform. Most large-scale chains are pricing conventional large eggs around $3.00 per dozen, while smaller, regional stores are seeing prices surge above $4.00—and, in some cases...

ANALYSIS: Australia's Oct 2024 Beef Exports Hit Fresh All-Time High; YTD Exceeds 1 Million Mt

Australia’s beef and veal exports for October 2024 reached a fresh all-time high at 130,048 mt, according to the latest figures from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (DAFF).

While October 2024 export figures exceeded July 2024’s high of 129,998 mt by a narrow margin of 50 mt, they reflected a month-on-month (m-o-m) increase of 14.0% (+16,002 mt). This rise was driven by higher shipments to key destinations, including the...

ANALYSIS: U.S Choice Bone-In Ribs Rise into the Holiday Period

As the holiday season approaches, Choice bone-in ribs have returned to the conversation. Looking back, this item has shown consistent upward momentum over the past month. It started October at $9.24/lb., approximately 10% lower than its year-ago level. Since then, the price has steadily risen to its current value of $11.03/lb., or roughly a 19% increase, surpassing 2023 year-to-date price of $10.93/lb.

In a similar trend, 2023 also saw...

ANALYSIS: Put Your Turkey Where Your Mouth Is

This year’s per capita turkey consumption estimate is 13.9 lbs., a 9.0% decline from the 5-year average. In response, year-to-date (YTD) turkey slaughter is at a record low of 157.2 million, representing a 6.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY) and a 6.6% drop from the 5-year average. Notably, while both hen and tom harvest numbers are below the 5-year average, they have not decreased YoY. This trend reflects shifts in turkey production, driven by evolving consumption patterns...

The Retail Rundown: Holiday Countdown Rapidly Winds Down

With Thanksgiving just three weeks away, the holiday rush is fueling retail traffic as shoppers stock up on essentials. This week, turkey promotions account for 3.3 percent of all protein ads, down from 5 percent the previous week. The number of grocery chains featuring turkeys also declined, with 39 chains participating, compared to 49 chains a week earlier.

Despite fewer promotions, fresh whole turkey sales rose week-over-week, reaching $1.3 million last week, up from $909,368 the week prior, according to Circana...

ANALYSIS: Argentina’s Beef Exports Rose Modest 3.0% in September, Still Marking a 44.5% Y-o-Y Surge

Argentina’s beef exports reached 70,806 MT in September 2024, according to the latest data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census. Although this figure shows a modest 3.0% M-o-M increase, it still remains 44.5% higher compared to the same period last year.

China continues to represent a significant portion of market share, absorbing 68.9% of total Argentina’s beef exports, equivalent to 49,521 MT. This represents a slight 2.4% drop compared to the previous month, but still...

ANALYSIS: Japan's Sept 2024 Beef Imports Plummets to 7-Month Low Amid High Inventory Pressure

Japan’s beef imports in September 2024 plunged 21.9% month-on-month (m-o-m) to a seven-month low, totalling 38,177 metric tonnes (mt), as reported by Trade Statistics of Japan.

At the lowest level since February 2024, this 10,707 mt decline was mainly led by lower volumes from its major suppliers, apart from Mexico. This monthly slowdown traces back to lingering challenges from Japan’s scorching summer, which curtailed foodservice consumption and led to inventory buildups across key regions such as Tokyo... 

ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage Continues Descent

Keeping in line with August's overarching theme, September's latest public warehouse holdings report reveals an ongoing tug-of-war between historically low production levels and seasonally tepid demand for key items like turkey breasts. The most recent inventory report brought with it a modest 1.4%, or 6 million pound, uptick in total holdings when compared with the year prior. Despite this slight advance from 2023, at 427 million pounds, September’s reading still resides at the fourth lowest seasonal level in nearly three decades; highlighting this year’s 3% year-over-year (YoY)... 

The Retail Rundown: Late-Season Push for Grilling Cuts

As October ends, beef and seafood promotions are neck and neck, each occupying about 25 percent of total advertising space. During the final week of "Pork-tober, pork features account for 20.8 percent of buying opportunities, closely followed by chicken at 20.6 percent.

Though the shift from grilling cuts to roasts has been in motion for a few weeks, a forecast of record warmth in parts of the central and eastern U.S. this week offers a last chance for backyard cooking before winter sets in.

This could spur late-season promotions...

ANALYSIS: US Boneless Beef Imports from Australia Soar, Domestic and Import 90s Gap Grows

The week of October 7th experienced 6,045 MT of boneless beef that cleared for entry into the United States, marking a significant 52-week high. This represents an impressive year-over-year increase of 53.5%. Australia plays a key role in the boneless beef market, exporting lean boneless beef to various countries, with the U.S. accounting for 32.6% of their exports, equating to 37,218 MT in September alone.

Even with more meat available on the market, the price of Aus/NZ...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Egg Prices Surge to Record October Highs on Retail Strength, Bird Flu Cases

U.S. shell egg prices have surged to a record October high of $4.32 per dozen—a staggering 95% increase since the start of a rapid rally that began on October 10. This rise in prices comes as strong retail demand coincides with a fresh wave of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which has impacted layer populations and intensified the tight supply situation.

Retail demand has been exceptionally robust in recent weeks, spurred by scattered promotional activity and widespread price cuts...

ANALYSIS: Pork 42% Trim Outpaces Beef 50% Trim

When analyzing UB Pork 42% Trimmings and UB Beef 50% Fresh Chemical Lean Trimmings, both commonly used in hot dog and sausage processing, the weekly average price for pork 42s is trending about 26.2% higher than the weekly average price of beef 50s. This is due to limited supplies of pork 42 trimmings on the spot market, while beef 50s have been experiencing fully adequate to ample availability, with softer demand also noted.

Frozen pork trim supplies in cold storage have trended below year-ago levels throughout the...

ANALYSIS: Korea's 2024 Safeguard on Australian Beef Kicks In, 43 Days Earlier Y-o-Y

As of 24^th October, Australian beef imports into Korea has exhausted its 2024 Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) volumes, according to the Korea Customs Service website.

Imports exceeding this volume now incur a tariff rate of 24.0% for the remainder of the year, up from the current rate of 10.6%. This activation occurred significantly earlier than last year’s 8th December 2023 trigger date, representing a difference of approximately 43 days.

Just earlier on 14th October 2024, Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) has reported that Australia had...

ANALYSIS: Hang-gliding Chicken Thigh Meat

Thigh meat quotations started being recorded in November of 1997. Since then, in over two-thirds of the years, the quotation has decreased from Q3 to Q4. The last year in which quotations were higher on average in Q4 compared to Q3 was 2018 when they were higher by an average of 1%. In the past five years, there's been an average decline in value of approximately -26%, with annual average changes ranging from -6% in 2019 to -52% in 2022. As we enter Q4 of this year, market participants...

ANALYSIS: New Zealand's Sept 2024 Beef Exports Tumble to 11-Month Low amid Seasonal Slowdown

New Zealand’s September 2024 beef exports plummeted to an 11-month low, recording at 29,110 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest data from Stats NZ. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline, with exports falling by 8.3% (-2,631 mt) compared to August 2024.

The lower tonnage saw reduced exports to key clients such as the United States (US), Japan and Korea, while increased allocations to Canada, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia helped offset further falls...

ANALYSIS: A Turkey Balancing Act

The turkey industry as a whole continues to find itself at a crossroads, with cold storage numbers dwindling and slaughter and hatchery data similarly declining. While some of the slowdown in production is intentional, aiming to counter sluggish consumer demand, disease-related complications—both past and ongoing—remain a significant concern. Uncertainty surrounding future production has left many market participants on edge as the year-end approaches and 2025 looms.

Delving into the numbers, the latest USDA cold storage report showed total turkey inventories edging... 

ANALYSIS: Mexican Beef Import and Export Dynamics YTD

From January to September 2024, beef imports in Mexico reached a total of 190,097 tons, reflecting a significant increase compared to the previous year. The United States remains the main supplier, with 112,974 tons accounting for 68.9% of total imports, an 8.1% increase compared to the same period last year. This growth highlights the ongoing importance of the U.S. market as a key source of supply for Mexico, especially during times of economic fluctuations that have affected trade decisions.

In addition to imports from the United States, South America has... 

ANALYSIS: UB Choice Beef Cutout Outperforming Year Ago Levels

The Urner Barry Choice Cutout has been relatively tame this year when compared to last year’s moves. The peaks and troughs have been fairly muted as prices remain sticky and at elevated levels from a historical perspective. This has largely been driven by the lower middle meat prices as buyers opted for more cost-conscious beef items. For example, when looking at export ribs or tenderloins through the summer months – they predominantly tracked below year-ago levels and by quite a good margin...

ANALYSIS: Korea's Beef Imports Rise 4.8% Y-o-Y in September, Australia Surpasses US as Top Supplier

Korea’s beef imports rose to 38,580 metric tonnes (mt) in September 2024, reversing last month’s losses, according to the latest figures from the Korea Customs Service.

Volumes rose by 1.2% (+452 mt) from the previous month, bolstered by increased imports from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. However, declines in quantities from the United States, driven by a reduction in herd size, limited overall growth.

Annually, total imports increased by 4.8% (+1,768 mt), representing the strongest growth since the beginning... 

The Retail Rundown: Tuning in to Turkey

Retail promotions for seafood continue to dominate the protein category this week, capturing nearly a third of ad circular space (32 percent). Beef and pork follow, taking up 23 percent and 21.3 percent, respectively. Chicken is up slightly from the previous week at 16 percent. Egg ads held steady at about 3 percent.

Several items were featured at lower prices compared to 2023 last week, with chicken leg quarters averaging $1.55 per pound, 5 cents cheaper than last year. Fresh pork loin prices were down by 2 percent...

ANALYSIS: China’s Beef Imports Sink 5.7% M-o-M in September; Tonnage Lowest Since 2020

China’s September 2024 beef imports slumped 5.7% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 218,199 metric tonnes (mt), according to the General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China.

Although August 2024 saw a mild recovery, volumes in September 2024 dropped by 13,136 mt, with declines recorded across all major suppliers except Australia and Bolivia. September 2024’s in-month tonnage was also the lowest since 2020, underscoring the ongoing challenges faced by the world’s largest beef importer.

Annual figures painted...

ANALYSIS: Breaking out the Chicken Production Roadmap

From a seasonal shift in buyer outreach, to heavy live weights, and even hurricanes, there is no shortage of variables which are keeping chicken market participants on their toes here in mid-October.

Given the volatile and somewhat unpredictable nature of the market lately, players are finding that historic seasonality isn’t always the best indicator of the road that lies ahead. This scenario has prompted some participants to break out the production “roadmap” in an attempt to hone their expectations for the future. Perhaps one of the best indicators at...

ANALYSIS: Turkeys Stuck at Home, Exports Drop in August

On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, total turkey export volumes were down -10% in August, while total export values were up 4%. These numbers could suggest a combination of a few factors. First, export buyers may have been buying less overall production, but the production they were purchasing may have been of a higher value than the previous year.Second, in the case of Mexico, an average YoY increase in the strength of the Mexican peso to the U.S. dollar may have supported Mexican buyers. Last, but certainly not less...

The Retail Rundown: Eggs Rule the Roost During Baking Season 

As October reaches its midpoint, many homes are filled with the irresistible aromas of freshly baked goods, marking the onset of the holiday baking season.

This seasonal shift benefits the egg case as eggs find their way into breads, cookies, pastries, pies, and more. Also, more consumers are reaching for hot breakfasts as the weather turns colder, which further boosts egg demand.

Data from Circana shows that the average retail feature price for large, white Grade A eggs averaged $3.72 per dozen last week...

ANALYSIS: China’s Sept 2024 Meat Imports Slump 4.3% M-o-M; Ends Two-Month Growth Streak

China’s total meat imports, including variety meats fell in September 2024, amounting to 540,543 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest preliminary figures from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China. 

On a monthly basis, imports slipped 4.3% (-24,559 mt), partially affected by the shorter working month due to the observance of the Mid-Autumn festivities. 

Annually, imports plummeted by 9.2% (-54,457 mt) in September, marking the eighth consecutive month since the start of the year...

ANALYSIS: The U.S 2024 Ups and Downs of Inside Rounds

As cooler temperatures bring in roasting season, let's take a look at a favorite, inside rounds. This item has seen a year of heightened volatility, which started back in Q1. They have broken all-time record highs for March at $3.76/lb; this is 35% above year-ago levels and roughly 40% over the 5-year average for this time.  If we look back to the middle of June, inside rounds saw a sharp price increase. This item rose 15% in about a month...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Export Volumes in August

Total chicken exports were up 3.5% from July to August, compared to a 5-year average month-over-month (MoM) change of 4.6%. Of the twenty countries listed in the USDA’s monthly import/export report, thirteen of them had increased MoM export volumes in August, but only seven of them were up year-over-year (YoY). This aligns with the year-long trend of lower export volumes in which the current year-to-date (YTD) value of 4.4 billion lbs. is -8.6% lower YoY and is...

ANALYSIS: US Pork Exports Rise 6.2% Year-Over-Year in August, Led by Central & South American Gains

On Wednesday, the USDA released their August import/export trade data. The latest report reveals mixed results for U.S. pork exports in August. While overall exports saw a slight decline of 1.1% compared to July, they continued to increase by 6.2% year-over-year.

Notable success was achieved in Central America, where exports surged by 5.9% from the previous month and a remarkable 31.3% from last year, driven by strong demand in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Panama, Honduras, and Guatemala...

ANALYSIS: Upward-Trending Turkey Drum Quotations

Quotations for domestic East coast frozen tom drums were established in January of 1989. Since then, there have only been four years in which the quotations have not retreated from the first of the year to the current date. These years were 2011, 2013, 2018, and 2024.

None of these years have boasted a record-high seasonal quotation at any point of the year, and they don't have the most dramatic increases from the first of the year to the current week. In fact, only...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Dressed Steer Weights Continue in Record High Fashion

As of September 16^th, dressed steer weights continue to push all-time high levels for the past two consecutive weeks currently at 948 lbs. Year-over year there has been a percent change of 3.27%. Since July, dressed steer weights have increased by 3.6%. The previous record was set less than a year ago, at the end of 2023, when dressed steers averaged 942 lbs. in December. Over the past three years, weights have consistently exceeded the ten-year average across all months. The current period... 

ANALYSIS: EU Egg Imports and Exports Show Growth in the First Half of 2024

The EU continues to be a net exporter of eggs and egg products, even as imports have risen significantly in recent years. H1 2024 figures indicated that the EU egg imports reached 57,078 tonnes, edging up by 21.81% from January to June 2023. The rise in imports was mostly driven by a strong domestic demand. As consumers grapple with high living expenses, many are trading down to more affordable protein options, making eggs a particularly appealing choice. Despite this import growth...

ANALYSIS: Brazilian Beef Exports Hit a New Record High in September, 8.4% MoM and 17.4% YoY.

The Brazilian fresh beef (frozen and chilled) exports totaled 251,749 MT in September, according to the latest data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat. This sets a new record, surpassing the previous high from just two months ago, when Brazil shipped 237,268 MT of fresh beef overseas. September volume accounts for a monthly 8.4% increase and is 17.4% higher compared to the same period last year. On a year-to-date basis, Brazil has exported 1,845,638 MT of fresh beef...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Dressed Steer Weights Continue in Record High Fashion

As of September 16^th, dressed steer weights continue to push all-time high levels for the past two consecutive weeks currently at 948 lbs. Year-over year there has been a percent change of 3.27%. Since July, dressed steer weights have increased by 3.6%. The previous record was set less than a year ago, at the end of 2023, when dressed steers averaged 942 lbs. in December. Over the past three years, weights have consistently exceeded the ten-year average across all months... 

ANALYSIS: China Activates Australian Beef’s Safeguard Mechanism in Surprise Move

China has announced that Australian beef will now be subjected to a 12.0% Most-Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff, as the Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) of 178,418 metric tonnes (mt) has been triggered, according to a statement from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.

In a surprising move, the official announcement came on Sunday, October 6th, during China's seven-day "Golden Week" holiday, which began on October 1st. This period, marking the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic, is one of the country's longest public holidays...

ANALYSIS: Australia's Sept 2024 Beef Exports Slide 6.4% MoM; China-bound Shipments Climb

Australia beef and veal exports in September 2024 eased further to 114,046 metric tonnes (mt), the latest data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (DAFF) indicated.

Hitting the 2nd highest in-month figure since our records began in 2010, September’s exports surpassed the drought year’s highs back in 2019, but narrowly missing 2015’s record highs of 118,432 mt by 4,386 mt.

Month-on-month (m-o-m), volumes slipped another 6.4% (-7,751 mt) following July 2024’s all-time highs that was recorded at...

ANALYSIS: EU Shell Eggs Firming up as Consumption Progresses

The EU is experiencing a firm shell egg market, as it is common to see at this period of the year. However, market players on the supply side report that the overall egg production in the region is not following the strong progression of the demand from consumers and from processors.

According to Eurostats, graded shell eggs in the EU increased value by 6.9% between week 34 at 1,936€/MT (in the middle of August) and week 39 at 2,069€/MT (at the end of September)...

ANALYSIS: Unusual Trend Ignites Price Surge in Chuck Rolls

In January, Chuck Rolls entered the year at $3.85/lb, gaining in price to $4.57/lb by the end of the month, or roughly a 19% change. The price jump can be attributed to winter weather events that caused plant closures and disrupted the supply chain. A bottom of $3.50/lb was seen in the beginning of May as production normalized back in April, putting Chuck Rolls back on track with historical trends. In late August, prices started to increase, whereas in the past, prices...

ANALYSIS: Uruguay Beef Exports Shed 16.9% in September, Still Up by 4.0% YTD

According to the latest data released by the Uruguayan National Customs Directorate, Uruguay’s fresh beef export has reached 25,625 MT in September 2024, marking a 16.9% decline compared to the previous month, and 13.7% drop YoY. On a YTD basis, beef exports totaled 263,910 MT, which is 4% higher than last year’s 253,847 MT.

China continued to be the primary destination for beef exports in September, accounting for 10,076 MT, or 39.3% of the total. This figure represents a reduction of nearly 20% compared...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Cold Storage Holdings in August

Despite a slight retreat in demand for several domestic lines during August, frozen inventory remained well below last year’s level, fueled in part by an active call from the export arena. Now, in October, these factors are starting to resurface and play a major role in current market dynamics. Total chicken in frozen inventory was down -9.0% year-over-year (YoY), which positions August’s inventory at the third lowest seasonal level over the past ten years. All individual categories, with the exceptions of drums and paws, were also down on a YoY basis...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Beef Cold Storage Hits a 52-Week Low

According to the latest USDA beef cold storage report, the total volume of beef in cold storage has experienced a significant decline in August, with an almost 2% drop month-over-month. This decline has brought the current storage volume to its lowest level in three years. Notably, boneless beef has seen a decrease of 1.13%, while beef cuts have experienced a more pronounced reduction of 7.48%. This considerable decline in beef cuts suggests that the overall change in total beef inventory is closely aligned with the trends...

ANALYSIS: U.S. Egg Prices Stabilize After Sharp Decline, Amid Strong Canadian Demand, Retail Uptick

Friday marked the end of a four-week decline in U.S. shell egg prices, during which Midwest Large fell by a staggering 51.1%, settling at $2.12 per dozen. This drop came amid weak retail demand and increasing production levels. Throughout the summer, many of the nation’s largest retailers had employed eggs as a loss leader, boosting unseasonably strong demand as inflation-conscious consumers sought affordable, high-protein food options.

Summer is typically a period of reduced production, as egg producers cycle...

The Retail Rundown:  Port Strike Sends Shockwaves Throughout Supply Chain 

The strike at East and Gulf Coast ports officially began once the calendar turned to October, following unsuccessful contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX).

The strike's impact is being felt throughout the supply chain, causing significant disruptions in the flow of goods ahead of the rapidly approaching holiday season. 

In a statement released on Tuesday, USMX stated that its current offer includes a nearly 50% wage increase. In response, ILA said it has rejected USX's offer "because it fails to address...

ANALYSIS: Japan's Aug 2024 Beef Imports Dips 0.9% M-o-M; Australia and New Zealand Lead Yearly Gains

Japan’s August 2024 beef imports slipped by just 0.9% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 48,884 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest data from Trade Statistics of Japan.

Marking the fourth consecutive month below the 50,000 mt threshold, the pace of import growth was eroded by Japan’s blistering summer conditions and a weak yen, which has contributed to a slowdown in the dining-out sector.

Compared to the same period last year, imports grew a healthy 7.0%...

ANALYSIS: Korea Poised for Early Activation of Safeguard Mechanism on Australian Beef Amid US Supply

Australian beef imports into Korea could face a tariff rate increase of 24.0% as the Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) mechanism is expected to activate earlier than in previous years. Korea's increasing reliance on Australian beef amid dwindling US supply has long suggested an earlier activation of the safeguard tariffs. 

Under the Korea-Australia Free Trade Agreement (KAFTA), the safeguard volume for this year is set at 188,437 metric tonnes (mt). Any imports exceeding this safeguard volume limit in 2024 will incur a tariff rate of 24.0%...

ANALYSIS: Mexico’s Livestock Trade Deficit Persists Amid Volatile USD:MXD

The Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA) reported that Mexico's livestock trade balance remains in deficit, driven by increasing domestic prices that spurred record beef and pork imports. Between January and July 2024, meat imports totaled 1.67 million tonnes, a 6.3% increase from the same period in 2023.

Homero García de la Llata, president of Mexicos National Confederation of Livestock Organizations (CNOG), pointed out that several problems and weaknesses are affecting livestock farming in Mexico. These include low productivity, limited financing, and a lack of innovation and technology....

ANALYSIS: Imported Cattle Shake Up US Beef Market

The U.S. boxed beef market has had its fair share of trials and tribulations this year and they only seem to be growing as unfamiliar trends continue to emerge. One of those trends that has largely been absent through the last couple years during the contraction in the U.S. cattle herd, is imported cattle from Mexico and Canada. Fast forward to the present day, this trend is alive and well and has been causing some uncertainty in the market as both sides of the aisle try to gauge the...

ANALYSIS: Production Shortfall Drives New Zealand's Aug 2024 Beef Exports to 10-Month Lows

New Zealand’s August 2024 beef exports totalled 31,741 metric tonnes (mt), hitting the lowest levels since October 2023, according to the latest data from Stats NZ. The volume fell by 18.2% (-7,072 mt) compared to the previous month.

Marking a 10-month low, and falling for the third consecutive month, this decline was primarily driven by New Zealand's two key markets, the United States (US) and China, with smaller drops also seen in markets like Canada, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. In-month volumes was also...

ANALYSIS: Whole Turkey Quotations From the Start of Q4 to Thanksgiving

Five-year average trends show that quotations for fresh and frozen whole-body turkeys have historically increased by minute amounts between the outset of October through Thanksgiving, regardless of sizing. By the time that the fourth quarter arrives, most whole turkeys for the holidays are already spoken. Still, there are usually buyers who opt to stock up during the weeks immediately preceding Thanksgiving. This is especially true of fresh offerings as evident by the 5-year average quotation change of 0.36% and 0.96% for fresh hens... 

The Retail Rundown: Onwards to October

With October nearing, the shift in retail meat features from grilling cuts to roasts is picking up pace. More households are utilizing their ovens and crockpots, making it prime time for hearty ingredients like chuck roasts and pork shoulders.

Still, warmer weather lingers in some regions. For those with favorable grilling conditions, shoppers may find deals on items like steaks, ribs, and pork chops as retailers work to move any extra inventory. 

This week’s retail buying opportunities show seafood continuing to lead, making up 26.9% of protein advertisements, followed by pork at 24.7%, beef at 21.2%...

ANALYSIS: Mexican Beef Imports and Exports Overview

During 2024, the Mexican beef market experienced its lowest levels of exports to the United States in the past three years. This was a consequence of the strengthening of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar, which began at the end of 2022 and continued to strengthen throughout 2023 and the first two quarters of 2024. This led to a widespread pattern where bids from U.S. buyers were simply unattractive to Mexican sellers, who preferred to place their product in the domestic market, which offered higher figures...

ANALYSIS: China on the Brink of Imposing 12.0% Tariff on Australian Beef Amid Rising Imports

China is on the verge of triggering the Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) mechanism for Australian beef imports, with only 21,968 metric tonnes (mt) remaining before a 12.0% Most-Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff is enforced.

By the end of August 2024, imports had reached 156,450 mt, nearing the 178,418 mt threshold. Most market players now anticipate that the safeguard volume mechanism will be triggered by early October, though delays in port clearance due to Typhoon Bebinca may push this to mid-October...

ANALYSIS: Korea's August 2024 Beef Imports Defy Decade-Long Trend, Falls 1.2% M-o-M

Korea's August 2024 beef imports hit 38,128 metric tonnes (mt), slipping 1.2% (-448 mt) month-on-month (m-o-m), according to the latest figures from the Korea Customs Service.

While the monthly decrease was modest, it marked the first decline since 2014. Historically, August imports tend to rise from July in anticipation of the major holiday, Chuseok. 

This drop was primarily driven by reduced supply from the United States, impacted by a herd size crunch, although it was partially offset by higher...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Production Outlook for Q4

The USDA is forecasting a year-over-year (YoY) decrease in beef and turkey production for Q4 of this year and a YoY increase in production of pork and chicken. Ready-to-cook (RTC) broiler production is expected to increase by 3.57% YoY. Beginning ten weeks prior to the outset of Q4 to the most current data, egg sets have been up by 2.62% to 5.04%. Increases in broiler chick placements from the middle of August, seven weeks prior to the start of Q4, are slightly less dramatic with values ranging

ANALYSIS: Egg White Powder Exports to Japan See Declining Revenues Despite Stable Volumes

Since 2023, the volume of dried egg white exported to Japan by the EU has plateaued at levels 26% lower than two years ago in 2021. The average of quarterly volumes exported in 2021 is 2105 MT, vs 1464 MT in 2023, and 1593 MT in 2024 (first and second quarters). Exports are now more stable and even slightly higher in 2024, compared with last year. However, in terms of revenue, values have been declining rather steeply since Q1 2023...

ANALYSIS: China’s Aug 2024 Beef Imports Up 7.4% MoM Before Holidays; Economic Woes Sink YoY Growth

China’s August 2024 beef imports rose 7.4% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 231,335 metric tonnes (mt), according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China.

Monthly increases were recorded at 16,013 mt, representing the second consecutive rise since June's 13-month low, fuelled by increased shipments from Brazil, its top supplier.

The higher import figures were in line with market expectations ahead of the winter season. Historically, demand for red...

ANALYSIS: Pork Cutout Continues its Gradual Decline

The pork cutout value has been steadily decreasing since the end of July, closing at $93.24/cwt on September 13th. This decline, while aligning with historical seasonal trends, represents a 12.1% decrease since July 29th and a slight dip below last year’s value. The decrease in value can be attributed to a combination of factors, including increased production levels, which are currently 2.4% higher than this time last year.

The week of September 16th saw a continuation of this downward trend, with the total cutout value falling 4.2% below...

ANALYSIS: Pork Exports Surged to 10-Year Highs in July

The USDA's latest pork import/export report reveals a robust trend in U.S. pork exports, reaching a decade-high volume of 566,659 thousand pounds in July 2024. This marks an 8.1% increase from the previous month and a significant 12.3% year-over-year growth.

Mexico, a key trade partner, saw a substantial increase in U.S. pork imports, with a 25.6% month-over-month and 25.9% year-over-year surge, potentially driven by HPAI restrictions impacting US poultry exports, which has since begun to ease... 

The Retail Rundown: Going All-Out for Autumn

Fall is just around the corner, with the official start of autumn this Sunday, September 22. As cooler weather sets in and travel plans wind down, grocers are ramping up their offerings of seasonal favorites to align with the change in consumer preferences. 

According to the Expana Retail Activity Index, seafood continues to lead for the fourth week in a row, making up 30% of total protein ads. Beef and pork are close behind, each at around 25%, while chicken accounts for 14%. Eggs represent 2.8% of retail opportunities, and turkey has 2.3%...

ANALYSIS: The State of 81% Coarse Grinds Amid Summer's End

With summer coming to a close, let’s take a look at one of our summer favorites, coarse 81% grinds. This past year 81% coarse grinds have seen very stout levels of demand as consumers largely opted for cost-conscious beef options. This has given the item an uplift of nearly 36% year-to-date to $3.18/lb. This is approximately 16% higher than last year and 29% above the 3-year average during the same period. In 2023, we saw typical post Labor Day...

ANALYSIS: A Deep Dive into Chicken Export Volume for July

July chicken export volumes were down -2.0% from June, which is a period in which the 5-year average change is an increase of 1.1%. Despite this, the amount of chicken moved to Mexico, the Philippines,and Taiwan, the first, second, and fourth top importers of U.S. chicken respectively, were up by 15.6%, 47.3%, and 28.4%. Conversely, the volumes sold to the third and fifth top importers of U.S. chicken, Cuba and Canada, were down by -7.5% and -16.0%, respectively.

The 5-year average month-over-month (MoM)...

ANALYSIS: China’s Aug 2024 Meat Imports Rise 4.7% Ahead of Winter; YTD Figures Up 2.7%

China's meat imports, including variety meats, increased for the second consecutive month in August 2024 to reach 565,102 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.

This 4.7% monthly growth (+25,189 mt) followed July 2024’s recovery from three consecutive months of declines during the second quarter of 2024. 

As China emerges from a scorching summer, importers have been actively replenishing stocks in preparation for the winter season. Meat consumption typically...

ANALYSIS: A Deep Dive into Chicken Export Volume in July

July chicken export volumes were down -2.0% from June, which is a period in which the 5-year average change is an increase of 1.1%...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports Close Month On High Note

For those involved in the export sector of the turkey industry, 2024 has been anything but smooth sailing. Geopolitical tensions, fluctuating exchange rates, and variable international demand patterns have all contributed to a challenging landscape for players to navigate. Despite these difficulties, July's export figures showed some positive signs for marketers...

The Retail Rundown: Rising Feature Volume for Roasts

This month marks an ideal blend of seasons for the retail sector, as grilling cuts continue to be featured along with autumn favorites like hearty roasts and everything pumpkin. The shift to cooler weather is already being reflected in increased promotions for pork and beef roasts, which have earned a larger share of circular ad space this week. 

In the beef category, roasts now account for 26.4 percent of total ad space, up from 17 percent the previous week. Steak promotions eased to 36.9 percent, a nearly 10-point decline from...

ANALYSIS: August Trends in the By-Products Market

During August, the by-products market exhibited a predominantly steady trend, with limited activity across most sectors. Participants maintained a "wait-and-see" attitude due to the lack of in-spec material and limited offers. Tallow and grease prices ranged from steady to slightly weaker throughout the month, with minor downward adjustments largely influenced by fluctuations in soybean oil prices. This behavior in the tallow market was not surprising, as the quality issues, particularly concerning free fatty acid (FFA) levels, are typical of seasonal patterns observed during previous summers. Renderer tallow saw...

ANALYSIS: Wholesale U.S. Shrimp Prices Converging with Typically Lower Egg Prices

There is usually a common perception from consumers that seafood and shrimp are luxury items while eggs have appealed to price sensitive consumers. But the chart might tell a different story right now. From 2019 to 2020, the Expana Benchmark Price Large Shell Egg, Midwest averaged 19% of the price of the 16-20 count Peeled and Deveined, Tail-On White Shrimp, Asia origin...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Cold Storage Trends in July

The total amount of chicken in cold storage in July was down -10.5% year-over-year (YoY), while month-over-month (MoM) it was up 1.5% compared to the 5-year average change of 1.0%...

ANALYSIS: Pork Production Reaches 3-Year High in August

Federally inspected pork production has maintained the highest levels in the last 3 years going into the final week of August. According to the USDA Federally Inspected Pork Production Weekly Report, published on August 31^st, production volumes reached 509.7 million pounds. This represented a 3.8% increase from the same period last year and 2.9% above the three-year average. This summer's peak production number occurred in mid-August, reaching 527.1 million pounds, a significant 4.4% increase above the three-year average...

U.S. Egg Market Retreats from Seasonal Highs as Rising Shelf Prices Stifle Demand

A sharp rise in retail shelf prices across the U.S. has stifled consumer demand for eggs, bringing an end to a six-week rally that had pushed wholesale values to record highs for this time of year...

ANALYSIS: Production Indications Suggest Turkey Supply Pinch

An earlier analysis piece we published described the year-over-year (YoY) change in turkey hatchery figures and quotations for frozen 16 lbs. toms...

ANALYSIS: Australia's Aug 2024 Beef Exports Dip from Record Highs; US-Bound Volumes at 9-Year High

Australia's August 2024 beef and veal exports scaled back from record highs to 121,797 metric tonnes (mt), the latest data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (DAFF) revealed.

Volumes shed 6.3% (-8,201 mt) from July’s all time high of 129,998 mt. This decline was primarily driven by reduced exports to major clients such as Japan, China, and Korea, despite continued strength in exports to the tight United States (US) market.

Annually, exports surged by 19.0% (+19,446 mt), driven by increased... 

ANALYSIS: The Seasonal Rebound of EU Shell Egg Markets

Retail buying activity continues to rebound as the post-summer season unfolds, aligning with typical seasonal patterns observed at this time of year. Shell eggs have become less available for breaking plants as some producers are gearing their production efforts towards increased supermarkets demand. This has resulted in bullish sentiments for raw material, and sellers are confidently maintaining higher asking prices. This upward pressure on prices is evident in market assessments for both cage and barn shell eggs, which have risen for two consecutive...

The Retail Rundown: September's Seasonal Shifts

Although there are about two weeks left to enjoy summer, many consider the season unofficially over following Labor Day. The retail landscape is starting to reflect this shift, where factors like cooler weather and football season are already influencing consumer demand. 

The frozen/convenience aisles and deli counters benefit from back-to-school needs and provide quick meals for busy households. Circana data indicates that prepared dishes/kits earned $18.1 million in total sales last week, up from $17.7 million the week prior. Over in lunchmeat, fresh packaged turkey retailed at $7.21 discounted, an 18-cent year-over-year decrease.  

ANALYSIS: Japan's July 2024 Beef Imports Surge 27.5% Y-o-Y; Tourism Spike Supports Growth

Japan’s beef imports in July 2024 reached the second highest monthly total of the year, rising 3.8% month-on-month (m-o-m) by 1,789 metric tonnes (mt) to 49,347 mt, according to the latest data from Trade Statistics of Japan.

Earlier in February, volumes hit a five-year low at 31,012 mt, but still fell in line with typical import patterns.

On a yearly basis, imports grew a staggering 27.5% (+10,649 mt), led strongly by higher Australian volumes. In 2023...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Cold Storage Chills Out in July: Stocks Dip from Last Year

Despite July’s modest 1.5% uptick in cold storage holdings when compared with June, at 757.1 million pounds, chicken inventory levels still managed to close the month at the third-lowest seasonal level realized in at least a decade.

When compared with 2023, total warehouse stocks retreated by a significant 10.5%, or 88.5 million pounds. This ongoing slump in frozen holdings aligns closely with this year’s generally consistent level of buying engagement, especially for key lines such as boneless breasts, along with a cumulative downturn in overall...

ANALYSIS: July's Pork Cold Storage Figures Released

The latest installment of the July USDA Pork Cold storage report, released on August 23^rd, shows total frozen stock values continue to trend lower by 4.5% compared to this same time last year and 19.4% below the 10-year average. Effects of increased demand during the third and fourth quarters of 2023 from regions impacted by Prop 12 implementation in July to January of last year, continue to impact volumes for frozen stocks despite elevated slaughter levels throughout the summer. 

Cuts such as trimmings, bellies, butts and ribs were among the items...

ANALYSIS: Korea’s July 2024 Beef Imports Up 12.1% M-o-M: Yearly Growth Lags

Korea's beef imports reached 38,576 mt in July 2024, showing a 12.1% increase (4,154 mt) compared to the same month last year, according to the latest figures from the Korea Customs Service.

This monthly increase was driven primarily by higher imports from Australia and the United States (US) and Canada, while declines were noted from New Zealand.

On a yearly basis, imports dipped 5.0% or 2,027 mt. Korea's struggling economy has led to a decline in beef consumption, with consumers favouring more affordable options like...